The US Dollar
The US dollar will be influenced by housing sector data at the beginning of the week. Investor attention will be focused on new home sales and building permits on Monday, with a potential decrease in permits and sales causing concern. Economists view the housing sector as a key indicator of the US economy. Consumer confidence numbers for February on Tuesday will also be important, as a rise in confidence could indicate increased consumer spending and inflation. Additionally, durable goods orders and house price data will be released, but the CB Consumer Confidence Index is expected to have the most significant impact.
The focus on Wednesday will be on the Q4 GDP numbers, with potential revisions to the figures influencing views on the economy. However, it is unlikely that the Q4 numbers will impact the Fed’s rate path. On Thursday, the Core PCE Price Index and personal income/spending figures will affect bets on a potential Fed rate cut in H1 2024. Persistent inflation and increasing income/spending trends could postpone a rate cut until H2 2024. Other important stats to consider include jobless claims and the Chicago PMI, although they may take a backseat to inflation and personal income/spending data. The ISM Manufacturing and Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers will also wrap up a significant week for the US dollar, with investors needing to pay attention to inflation-related sub-components. Additionally, investor focus will be on speeches from FOMC members Raphael Bostic (Thurs/Fri), John Williams (Thurs), Loretta Mester (Thurs), and Mary Daly (Fri). The reaction to recent inflation numbers and opinions on the timing of a potential Fed rate cut could have a significant impact.
The EUR
The German consumer confidence data for March will be released on Tuesday. EUR/USD The recent consumer confidence reports have outlined a bleak forecast for spending. A sudden drop in confidence may indicate a long-lasting economic recession.
The focus will be on the economies of France and Germany on Thursday, with attention on the Q4 GDP numbers for France and retail sales and unemployment figures for Germany. However, the most significant impact on the EUR/USD is expected to come from the preliminary inflation figures for February from both countries. Higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a decrease in expectations for an ECB rate cut in April.
Friday will see a focus on manufacturing PMI numbers and preliminary Eurozone inflation figures. The performance of Italy’s PMI and revisions to the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI will affect the demand for EUR/USD. The CPI Report will be particularly important for both the markets and the ECB.
Investors need to pay attention to what ECB members say in addition to analyzing the numbers. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Monday and Executive Board member Elizabeth McCaul is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. calendar to speak.
The Pound
spotlight on the economy as Halifax releases its latest data on the state of the housing market. Pound Consumer sentiment and the UK economy have been negatively impacted by inflation and interest rates. If UK house prices were to unexpectedly decrease, it could further harm consumer confidence and spending intentions.
The confirmed manufacturing PMI figures for February may also impact the demand for the Pound among buyers on Friday.
However, the discussions from the Bank of England are expected to have a greater influence. Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on Tuesday, while Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak on Monday and Friday. calendar Speaking about inflation and the impact of interest rate cuts will be important. Sarah Breeden and Sir Dave Ramsden, members of the Monetary Policy Committee, will be giving speeches on Monday and Tuesday respectively.
The Loonie
Buyers’ demand for the product will be influenced by Canada’s Q4 GDP figures released on Thursday. Loonie Lower than anticipated GDP figures could lead to an increase in speculation about a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in the first half of 2024.
Other statistics such as wholesale sales and current account data are also important, but the GDP Report is expected to have a greater influence.
Private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from China on Friday is expected to have an impact on the predictions for demand and the trends of commodity currencies.
The Australian Dollar
Construction work completed on Wednesday will attract the attention of investors. The declining state of the housing sector could affect consumer confidence, spending, and the economy. Aussie dollar .
The upcoming retail sales figures for January in Australia will be important for investors to watch. The Reserve Bank of Australia considered raising interest rates during their February meeting. If there is a rise in consumer spending, it could lead to inflation driven by demand and impact the RBA’s future rate decisions.
Private capital expenditure figures are among the other statistics to consider, but it is expected that the focus for the Reserve Bank of Australia will be on the retail sales report.
Private sector PMIs from China and discussions about stimulus measures could impact the situation from other sources as well.
The Kiwi Dollar
On Wednesday, the RBNZ will put the Kiwi dollar Economists predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will maintain the cash rate at 5.50%. The focus will be on the Rate Statement and Press Conference for any unexpected policy changes.
Investors will also be closely watching the private sector PMI data from China on Friday. An increase in manufacturing sector activity would benefit riskier assets and commodity currencies.
The Japanese Yen
focus back on interest rates. In recent weeks, inflation has been relatively tame, but a higher than expected number could prompt the central bank to raise rates, leading to a potential decrease in consumer spending and economic growth. Investors will be watching closely to see if inflation continues to remain under control or if there are signs of it picking up. Japanese Yen The focus is on how inflation figures that are lower than anticipated may impact predictions about the Bank of Japan changing its stance on negative interest rates.
Nevertheless, it is important to take into account the inflation and industrial production data from the Bank of Japan that will be released on Thursday. If there is an increase in the annual inflation rate, it would strengthen the belief in the market that negative rates could potentially be adjusted in April.
Nevertheless, a decline in industrial production figures could indicate further economic instability. This unexpected downturn could potentially impact the Bank of Japan’s decision to end their policy of negative interest rates.
When considering inflation, it is important to also take into account the statements made by the Bank of Japan. Their guidance on when they plan to transition away from negative interest rates could have a significant impact.
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Out of China
Investors should pay attention to the private sector PMI numbers for February on Friday. Recent economic data from China has been inconsistent, but an increase in private sector activity could lead to higher demand for more risky investments.
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is expected to have a greater influence.
Investors should also take into account the discussions and announcements regarding economic stimulus coming from the Chinese government.
